Learn to compare work risks through loss impact, probability evidence, a hypothetical expected-value example, and limited trials with clear review points.
Compare potential loss and the evidence for its likelihood. Counting benefits and drawbacks does not give them equal significance.
Assess severe losses separately from averages and distinguish hypothetical probabilities from observed information.
Specify delayed publication, added cost, or missing quality. Atlassian’s premortem explores project concerns and preventive actions. (Atlassian: Premortem)
Distinguish cost records from causal hypotheses.
In hypothetical monetary units, a fifty-percent chance of gaining 100 and fifty-percent chance of losing 50 produce an expected value of 25. The probabilities are assumed for illustration.
Assess whether the loss of 50 is acceptable separately from the positive average.
Set spending, scope, and stopping decisions. Record results to improve evidence about likelihood and cost.
Keep public project descriptions aligned with actual capability.
Distinguish observed occurrences from severe losses that have not occurred. One problem-free trial does not establish zero future probability. Make assumptions and their evidence explicit when information is incomplete.
SpreadSite is a no-code website builder that lets you create, publish, and update a website from Google Sheets using ready-made templates.
To publish a website explaining the actual scope of your project, give SpreadSite a try!
A: Compare loss impact and evidence about likelihood.
A: Twenty-five using the assumed probabilities.
A: Assess severe loss and reversal effort too.
A: Spending, scope, stopping decisions, and review timing.
